Who's Going To Win November 3rd? Two Opposite Predictions
Updated: Oct 28, 2020
In what might be the craziest election cycle in the history of the United States, Americans will finally know on election night who is going to be the President to lead the United States out of the worst public health crisis since 1918, the worst unemployment numbers since the Great Depression, the worst racial tension and riots since the 1960's and the worst polarization of this nation since possibly the civil war.
With a record amount of absentee ballots being submitted across the country, it might take several days before we find out the results of the 2020 Presidential Election. What makes the situation even more complex is every state has different laws on when they can begin counting absentee ballots that arrived in the mail. For example, the battleground state of Pennsylvania (which is also the hardest state to spell) cannot begin counting their absentee ballots in the mail UNTIL ELECTION DAY. This is going to cause major headaches for election officials and anxiety for both the Trump and Biden campaigns. Democrats are submitting mail in votes at much higher numbers than Republicans. Because of this, election results at night might favor Trump due to all the in person voting but as mail in votes results begin trickling in, the results might begin to swing in Joe Biden's favor.
Another complexity in the election is some states will allow votes to be counted after election day as long as the ballot that was mailed in was postmarked by November 3rd, election day. For example, in the battleground state of Ohio, ballots in the mail arriving as late as November 13th, 10 days AFTER election day, can be counted as long as the ballot was postmarked by November 3rd. In other battleground states like Michigan, no mail in ballots received after November 3rd will be counted.
There is no symphony in the election process across the 50 states, with each state having their own rules on what ballots will be counted, when early voting starts and ends, when ballots will be counted, where you can drop off your ballots, etc. This should come as no surprise from a nation that can't get its Covid-19 response correct and from a nation where if the majority vote for a candidate, that candidate has a chance to not win the election.
The Electoral College
In 2016, President Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton but still won the Presidency because of the Electoral College. Each state has a certain number of electors assigned to them, based on population. If the majority of the people in that state vote for a certain candidate, then that candidate gets all the electoral votes from that state (hypothetically, there are ways where a candidate can't get all of them, but it's rare and not going to be talked about at length here). The first to 270 electoral votes wins the election. There are 538 total electoral votes.
The electoral college places an increased emphasis on certain "swing" states. These states are pivotal in every election because they can swing the election either way. The voters from these states swing their decision from election to election based on who the candidates are, the policies they're looking for and because a lot of these states have migrations of people from other states who begin to influence the election. For example, you have a lot of people from the liberal Northeast trickling down into states such as North Carolina which has caused the state to go from solid red to a swing state in recent elections.
2020 Swing State Predictions
In the following section, Unbiased Opinions will give two predictions for the 2020 Presidential Elections. One that will have Joe Biden elected as the next President of the United States and the other with Donald J Trump re-elected as the President of the United States. Both scenarios will explain why either candidate has a shot at winning the swing states in their scenarios.
Joe Biden - The next President of the United States of America
Michigan - Michigan had voted for a Democratic nominee for President in every election since 1992 UNTIL 2016. President Trump won Michigan with only 10,704 votes. Out of all the eligible voters in Michigan, trump won by .1%. In 2016, minority turnout was abysmal but that does not look like the case in 2020. Also, the folks from Michigan remember it was Barack Obama and Joe Biden who bailed out the auto industry in 2009 to save thousands of jobs in Michigan.
Wisconsin - Wisconsin had voted for a Democratic nominee for President in every election since 1988 UNTIL 2016. President Trump won Wisconsin with only 22,748 votes. Hillary Clinton famously never campaigned in Wisconsin in 2016, taking for granted the normally blue state. However, in 2020, Wisconsin has found itself having one of the worst situations in terms of Covid-19 and there is no Jill Stein or Gary Johnson type candidate to take votes away from the Democratic candidate. In addition, the shooting of Jacob Blake has galvanized the minority community in Wisconsin. President Trump's divisive rhetoric which has fueled racial tension across the country has turned away a lot of suburban voters as well.
Minnesota - Minnesota has voted for a Democratic nominee for President in every election since 1976! Hillary Clinton won the state in 2016 but not with the margins she would have hoped. The state plunged into chaos after the tragic death of George Floyd at the knee of a police officer. Many believe the chaos that ensued under the Democratic governor deterred many would be Democratic voters to vote Republican this time around. However, Minnesota has a long history of blue collar Democrats and rural farmer Democrats which is very different from other rural areas across the United States.
Iowa - The people of Iowa had voted for Barack Obama twice but in 2016 voted for President Trump. Farmers in Iowa have been hit hard with President Trump's trade policies. The trade war with China left many farmers with produce they couldn't sell or anyone to sell to. In addition, the folks of Iowa have been experiencing the impacts of climate change. In August of 2020, Iowa experienced an extremely rare derecho where winds reached up to 130mph. It caused $7.5 billion dollars worth of damage, the costliest thunderstorm in the history of the United States.
Arizona - Arizona was hit hard, early in the Covid-19 pandemic, specifically hitting the Latino populations. In addition, President Trump's divisive rhetoric towards minorities has stayed in the minds of the Latino population in Arizona. The folks in Arizona, including those in the suburbs, have not forgotten President Trump's hurtful words towards John McCain, who was the beloved war hero Senator in Arizona for decades. In addition, the older population in Arizona does not like being the sacrificial goat in the Covid-19 pandemic.
Nevada - The demographic change in Nevada has favored Democrats. Nevada is a rapidly changing state with the population growing immensely, with the Latino population growing in particular. Nevada has polled blue consistently and has gone blue in every Presidential Election since 2008. In addition, unemployment has hit Nevada hard due to the pandemic. Trump has also hurt his chances here and other states with his attack on Obamacare without providing a comprehensive healthcare plan of his own. This should be a state Biden wins
North Carolina - North Carolina had voted for a Republican candidate for President in every election since 1980 except in 2008 when the state went for Barack Obama. However, in recent years, the state has seen an influx of people from the liberal Northeast states due to the cheap cost of housing and job opportunities. In addition, Democrats have targeted the state to increase voter registration.
Donald J Trump - Re-elected as President of the United States of America
Pennsylvania - Joe Biden is from here but Unbiased Opinions is making a BOLD prediction and does not have Joe Biden winning PA in either of the scenarios. Pennsylvania had voted for a Democratic nominee for President in every election since 1992 UNTIL Trump won in 2016 by 44,292 votes, a very slim margin. The polls have consistently had Biden winning PA. However, most of the polls have had more Democrats being polled. In addition, Republicans have added 174,000 new voters since 2016 whereas Democrats have lost 31,000. The big question in PA is if the urban and suburban voters come out and vote for Biden because the middle of PA which is heavily Republican is coming out in droves for Trump.
Ohio - Ohio is truly a swing state, going from Republican to Democrat to Republican in the last several Presidential Elections. In fact, in the last 14 Presidential Elections, whoever has won Ohio, has won the Presidency. President Trump had a substantial victory in 2016, defeating Hillary by close to 8%. Current polling has Trump and Biden in a dead heat with Trump narrowly ahead in polls. President Trump's America First rhetoric galvanized his support in Ohio which saw thousands of manufacturing jobs leave the state over the past few decades. His support is still strong but there are signs the suburbs are moving away from him. However, Unbiased Opinions does not have Joe Biden winning in either scenario.
Florida - Just like Ohio, Florida is truly a swing state. In 1992, it went Republican, 1996, it went Democrat, in 2000 and 2004 it went Republican, in 2008 and 2012 it went Democrat and in 2016 it went Republican. In 2020, no one knows. The polls are in a dead heat between the two. Seniors, those over 65, voted for Trump overwhelmingly in 2016. However, just like most people would, they don't like being the sacrificial lamb goat in a pandemic and President Trump has seen his favorability with seniors decrease. However, Republicans have done a good job in getting Republicans to register to vote. They have seen a 200,000 positive increase in voter registrations vs Democrats. Reminder, Trump won Florida by only 144,000 votes. In addition, Florida Republicans have done a good job in bringing Latinos to the party, specifically Cuban Americans who will do anything to make sure there is no resemblance of communism in this country like the type they and their ancestors escaped from Cuba. (The Biden-Harris ticket is not socialism or communism but Republicans have done a good job portraying the Biden Presidency would be as such.) Unbiased Opinions does not have Joe Biden winning Florida in either scenario.
Texas - Texas has voted for a Republican candidate for President in every election since 1980. It's about 1 or 2 Presidential elections away from turning blue with the large influx or Latino voters and with the growing population of college white educated voters in the suburbs. Texas is surprisingly close this election cycle with the some polls having Biden and Trump in a dead heat. President Trump's divisive rhetoric towards Latinos, no doubt has caused a new wave of Democrats to form in the Lone Star State. However, Unbiased Opinions does not have Texas going blue in either scenario but does predict in 2024 or 2028, Texas will vote for a Democratic candidate.
Georgia - Georgia has not voted for a Democratic candidate since 1992, when Bill Clinton won the state (he was from nearby Arkansas). Polls have Biden and Trump locked in a dead heat. This is a major surprise as Georgia has been a safe haven for Republicans. But Atlanta has seen major growth and population increases due to employment opportunities and low costs of living. Newly registered African Americans this cycle has propelled Joe Biden into an outside chance of taking the state. President Trump's divisive rhetoric towards African Americans has fueled the newly registered voters. In addition, the suburbs have turned away from the divisive rhetoric of Donald Trump. Unbiased Opinions has Trump winning in both scenarios because the Republican party is deeply entrenched here but would not be surprised if Biden won on election night.
Arizona - Arizona has voted for a Republican nominee for President in every election since 1952 except in 1996 when the state went to Bill Clinton. For Joe Biden to take the state, it would take a major upheaval. President Trump won the state in 2016 by 4% and a lot of Arizonians love his stance on illegal immigration and his promise to build a wall (which has not happened). With the many Arizonians still in love with Trump, he can still win the state. It will be close.
Iowa - Though many farmers are hurting due to President Trump's policies, others still believe the potential trade deals he will orchestrate will help them in the long term. In addition, the federal government provided billions in subsidies to help the financial burden many farmers faced. Iowa has always been a toss up and will be so again, this year.
North Carolina - North Carolina is going to come down to if African Americans come out to vote and if the suburbs turn away from Trump and the Republican party as polls suggest. This state is a toss up that somehow always turns out red. It can happen again this year.
The two predictions above are just that, predictions. Anything can happen.
The polls have Joe Biden ahead but they also had Hillary up in 2016. President Trump then pulled off the greatest political upset in American politics. The race is going to be close and will take several days to determine the winner. As Americans, we can only hope it's our votes that will cast the winner and not the judicial system.
In 2016, only 58.1% of eligible voters voted. From all indications, there will be a record amount of votes casted in this years election. That is great news and something Americans should be proud of. In a year filled with pandemonium, chaos, divisiveness and tragedy, it seems like we're using our voices and our sacred fundamental right to vote to make the changes we want to see. It's up to us to make the changes we want and voting is one of the first steps we can take to see those changes actually come to fruition.